Black Jet Theory – Volume 2020-17 – China and Healthcare
August 28, 2020 by Marshall Snipes
Over forty years ago, at the outset of the reforms of the new Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping, the China economy was a mere 6% of the United States economy[i]. Having suffered under Mao Zedong’s Cultural Revolution, “Deng started the Boluan Fanzheng program which gradually dismantled the Maoist policies associated with the Cultural Revolution and brought the country back to order”[ii]. Today, China’s economy is the second largest economy in the world and is threatening the United States for the leader of the world’s economy. In 2018, the United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the traditional measure of the size of an economy, was still significantly larger ($20.58 trillion versus $13.4 trillion) than China’s, but the United States GDP based on purchasing power parity (PPP) was lower than China’s GDP ($21.4 trillion versus $27.3 trillion)[iii].
China has closed the gap and is trending towards becoming the world’s largest economy by the 2030’s[iv]. Trends are only a prediction if the assumptions don’t change over time, which of course rarely proves true. “China today bears little resemblance to the impoverished nation of (40 years ago). Since Deng Xiaoping embraced market reforms in 1979, the Middle Kingdom has gone from weakness to strength. Today it is the world’s No. 2 economy and top trading nation. It has more billionaires than the United States and more high-speed rail than the rest of the world combined. Under current strongman President Xi Jinping, China has embarked on a campaign to regain center place in the world.”[v]
The point is that China has become a significant threat to the United States economically and therefore politically. At the same time the United States foreign policy approach to Chinese relations dating back to 1971 has been based on a set of assumptions that many believe are misguided. China’s intentions have been dismissed under a series of assumptions that underlie the United States strategy, that cooperating with China economically would introduce the Chinese people to the culture of the western world, free enterprise, and freedom. Once those ideas were exposed to the Chinese people, then they would want to be like us. Cooperation with the Chinese, by giving them our technology and training, would further endear the United States way of life to the Chinese.
United States foreign policy has assumed that China was headed towards becoming a democratic country. Instead, the Chinese have developed “rather than an American styled free market economy, scholars are increasingly noting, the emergence of a system termed authoritarian capitalism”.[vi] China is still to this day ruled by the Chinese Communist Party. China has a long-term goal called the China Dream, to become the world’s super-power. “Only recently has there been disturbing signs that a more militaristic China may be ascendant”[vii] “China seeks hegemony over all of Asia and the Pacific, and it is aggressively cultivating ties with ethnic Chinese communities to sway countries like Singapore.”[viii] “But it also increasingly aspires to challenge the United States for global leadership – economically, politically, and, some believe, militarily”.[ix]
In 2018, Carla and I traveled to Hungary on holiday to discover the rich history of that country. Like many Eastern European countries, the history of Hungary is not easily found in the American education system. All throughout Budapest, there were billboards that declared the Chinese yuan was the world’s new currency. The message was not subtle. “Hide your strength, bide your time was the guiding philosophy of Deng Xiaoping’s foreign policy. He adopted the message from Sun Tzu, China’s ancient master strategist’s advice who said, appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak”.[x] Current Chinese President Xi Jingping has continued the Chinese goal of the China Dream. In Liu Mingfu’s book The China Dream, Liu says “China’s grand goal in the 21st Century is to become the world’s No. 1 power. The competition between China and the United States will not be like a shooting duel or a boxing match but more like a track and field competition. It will be like a protracted Marathon. At the end of the Marathon, Liu contended, the ruler finally will be the most virtuous power on the planet – the Chinese.”[xi] Hide your strength and bide your time.
Confucius says, “There cannot be two suns in the sky”.[xii] “The nature of world order is hierarchy. There is always one ruler at the top”.[xiii] Given the threat that China poses today, how do we interpret the role of China’s economic and political goal of becoming the leader of the world when it comes to healthcare?
The question becomes how does the COVID19 virus fit into China’s strategy? Was the virus man-made in a China lab? Was the virus intentionally or accidentally leaked into the environment? Was the dissemination of misleading information intentionally designed to deceive? Let’s look at the facts.
January 9 – The World Health Organization (WHO) announces the existence of Coronavirus related Pneumonia in Wuhan China. China reportedly knew in the fall of 2019 of the virus’ existence.
January 21 – The Center for Disease Control announces the first US Coronavirus case from a Washington resident who returned on January 15 from Wuhan. China tried to blame the virus on the United States.
January 23 – China quarantines 11 million people in Wuhan.
February 2 – President Trump restricts travel from China to the United States.
March 11 – WHO Declares COVID19 a pandemic two full months after it admitted its existence.
April 1 – U.S. Intelligence report says China misled the world.
China by all accounts has misled the United States in providing information about COVID19. According to ABC News, “The U.S. intelligence report says China not only misled the world on the severity of the virus, but also stockpiled medical supplies and PPE”[xiv] According to an April 1, 2020 report on Bloomberg, at that time China “publicly reported only about 82,000 cases and 3,300 deaths, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. That compares to more than 189,000 cases and more than 4,000 deaths in the U.S., which has the largest publicly reported outbreak in the world.”[xv]With respect to the origin of the virus, controversy abounds. From bats to the Wuhan level 4 biosecurity laboratory established by the Chinese government in 2017, there are many “opinions” as to where the virus originated. However, no one has come forth with evidence to support either view. The answer to that question is not only medically important, but it is also important from a geopolitical perspective.
Why would we believe the Chinese government, that the virus didn’t originate in the level 4 biosecurity laboratory in Wuhan? Why would we believe the data published by the Chinese government regarding the numbers of infected Chinese and the resulting deaths? The Black Jet Theory question is not whether or not the Chinese deliberately misled the United States and the rest of the world, but in light of the China Dream “Why wouldn’t they?”
Don’t take my word for it, think for yourself.
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[i] Comparing United States and China by Economy. World Bank August 2019.
http://statisticstimes.com/economy/united-states-vs-china-economy.php. (China GDP in 1978 – $149.54 billion divided by United States GDP in 1978 – $2,351.6 trillion).
[ii] Cultural Revolution. Wikipedia. Retrieved August 17, 2020. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_Revolution
[iii] Silver C. The Top 20 Economies in the World. Investopedia Updated March 18, 2020. Retrieved August 17, 2020. https://www.investopedia.com/insights/worlds-top-economies/
[iv] Ibid
[v] Campbell C, Yuki Y, Park A. Inside the Global Quest to Trace the Origins of COVID-19 and Predict Where It Will Go Next. Time. Retrieved August 19, 2020.
https://time.com/5870481/coronavirus-origins/
[vi] Pillsbury M. The Hundred-Year Marathon. Published by St. Martins Griffin. March 2016. Page 8.
[vii] Ibid. Page 15.
[viii] Qin A. Worries Grow in Singapore over China’s call to Help the “Motherland”. New York Times August 5, 2018. www.nytimes.com/2018/08/05/world/asia/singapore-china.html.
[ix] Diamond L. Ill Winds Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency. Published by Penguin Books 2020. Page 131.
[x] Taiki A. Retrieved August 19, 2020. https://www.quora.com/When-did-Deng-Xiaoping-say-hide-your-strength-bide-your-time
[xi] Does China Want to Be Top Superpower? ABC News, March 2, 2010. Retrieved August 19, 2020. http://abcnews.go.com/International/china-replace-us-top-superpower/story?id=9986355.
[xii] Defoort C. The Pheasant Cap Master (He Guan Zi): A Rhetorical Reading. New York: State University of New York Press. 1996. Page 206.
[xiii] Pillsbury M. The Hundred-Year Marathon. Published by St. Martins Griffin. March 2016. Page 20.
[xiv] ABC News. US intel believes China hid severity of coronavirus epidemic while stockpiling supplies. May 2, 2020. Retrieved August 19, 2020. https://abcnews.go.com/US/coronavirus-live-updates-us-surpasses-65000-covid-19/story?id=70467380
[xv] Wadhams N, Jacobs J. China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, U.S. Intelligence Says. Bloomberg. April 1, 2020. Retrieved August 19, 2020. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says.