Black Jet – Volume 2020-1 May 1, 2020 by Marshall Snipes
On May 9, 1969, William Beecher, military correspondent for the New York Times, published a front-page story, “Raids in Cambodia by U.S. Unprotested,” which exposed the secret B-52 bombing raids in Cambodia during the Viet Nam War. Henry Kissinger, assistant to the President, was convinced there had been a leak. During the next two years, Alexander Haig, a Kissinger assistant, attempted to have suspected members of the National Security Council wiretapped in an effort to determine the culprit. If there was a leak, the responsible party was never discovered.
As the story goes[1], Beecher simply observed from his vantage point that B-52’s (Black Jets) were bombing Cambodia. Obviously, something bigger was going on than what the public was told. Ultimately, his “common sense” observation led to the article exposing the secret raids. In his own words …
“And so I watched and waited and in May of 1969, … there came news reports of heavy B-52 raids on the South Vietnamese side of the border. I had been there. That made no sense at all. There weren’t targets there for saturation bombing, but there was on the other side (Cambodia)”.[2]
Today we find ourselves with information overload – with both sides of any argument claiming they know the truth. This leaves the public to decide which “expert” to believe. It has been my observation over the years, that what most people do is latch onto those “experts” that validate their presuppositions. Think of it this way. When was the last time someone asked you for an opinion when what they really wanted was for you to validate their conclusions.
Before we go on, a word about experts. Experts serve a purpose but are frequently wrong. We should listen to both sides, do the research, and make up our own minds. I was taught this was called critical thinking. As I was once asked – “Why do you let others make decisions for you?” The proverbial question– if everyone else jumps off the roof are you going to as well?
In Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book the The Black Swan – the Impact of the Highly Improbable, Taleb defines a Black Swan as a “highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was”.[3]
Does that sound like the situation today? Is today’s situation less random and more predictable than it would seem? I believe so. So let’s take it a step further. What is it that makes us believe the events of the day are predictable? I call it the Black Jet Theory, the same common sense approach that Beecher used in 1969. The Black Jet Theory is the notion that most of what currently happens, when viewed through the filter of common sense and critical thinking, leads to a different conclusion, than the widespread view of current thinking by those who control the dissemination and content of information (academia, the media, politicians and other “experts”).
So, over the near term, I will be publishing a series of short articles, using the Black Jet Theory, which will possibly lead the reader to a different conclusion. I will start with health care in the next issue. The purpose of these articles is to challenge the reader to think critically using common sense, and not to be led to conclusions based solely on someone else’s thinking. In my past roles, I have had the occasion to debate people whose views differed from mine. My experience tells me, if those people were intellectually honest, they gave me pause to think about the other position. If not, they seemed to repeat the same talking points over and over again.
Adolf Hitler in his 1925 book Mein Kampf[4] defined the “Big Lie” as a lie so “colossal” that no one would believe that someone “could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously”. It is our civic duty to distinguish between the “Big Lie” and the truth. That can only happen, in my opinion, through The Black Jet Theory.
[1] Many reports during this time period stated that Beecher had a source inside the government. That source was never revealed. Even if there was an inside source, the motivation to pursue the story appears to be Beecher’s curiosity derived from common sense. In any event the point is the same – sometimes the answer is in front of our eyes.
[2] “The American Experience in Southeast Asia, 1946-1975”, Media Roundtable Discussion, East Auditorium, George C. Marshall Conference Center, Washington, D.C. September 29, 2010.
[3] “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable”, Random House 2007
[4] “Mein Kampf, vol.1, ch.X by Adolph Hitler as translated by James Murphy 2008